MANILA, Philippines - Monetary authorities see the country posting higher foreign exchange reserves and balance of payment (BOP) surplus on the back of the strong recovery of the export sector, robust overseas Filipino workers’ remittances as well as steady foreign direct investment inflows.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. told reporters that the Monetary Board has already firmed up the revised forecast for the country’s gross international reserves (GIR), BOP surplus, OFW remittances, exports and imports as well as FDI inflows.
Tetangco pointed out that monetary authorities are now expecting higher numbers this year compared with the previous forecast firmed up last October after taking into consideration the actual 2009 results.
“The October numbers were done without the 2009 numbers yet. We got a better feel that led to upward adjustments,” he stressed.
The central bank expects the GIR hitting a new record high of between $47 billion and $48 billion due to robust mining as well as business process outsourcing (BPO) sectors.
Last year, the GIR jumped 17.8 percent to a new record high of $44.24 billion from $37.55 billion in 2008 due to strong inflows, government deposits, and the increasing value of the central bank’s gold holdings.
Latest data released showed that the country’s GIR hit a new record high of $46.16 billion as of end-March from $45.713 billion in February.
The BSP sees the BOP position posting a surplus of between $3 billion and $4 billion this year from $5.3 billion last year on the back of strong inflows of overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) remittances, robust portfolio investments, and recovering export earnings.
The BOP surplus, latest data showed, fell by 20 percent to $1.363 billion in the first quarter from $1.732 billion in the same quarter last year.
On the other hand, the BSP sees FDI inflows easing to about $1 billion this year. FDI inflows went up by 26.2 percent or $404 million to $1.95 billion last year from $1.54 billion in 2008 on the back of strong equity inflows as investors continued to plough back earnings to the country in recognition of the resilient domestic economy.
As expected, FDI inflows plunged by 74 percent to $101 million at the start of the year from $393 million in January last year due to lower equity placements and higher withdrawals.
Source: Philippine star